Dear Colleagues!

On behalf of the United Aircraft Corporation, we present a long-term forecast for the development of the civil commercial segment. The event is important for us, since market expectations, direction vector and airline development are the message for us that we are trying to take into account when creating a line of aircraft.

UAC is currently undergoing a period of formation and strengthening in the market. You know that our product line now includes aircraft in almost all segments from 30 seats. We understand, in order to occupy a worthy niche in the market civil aviation, it is extremely necessary and necessary to be competitive not only internally Russian Federation, but also on the foreign market.

We try to take into account the requirements of airlines and their expectations not only in the appearance of the aircraft, but in their technical specifications. The total market volume until 2035 is estimated at approximately $6 trillion, with 42,000 aircraft ranging from 30 seats. And as I said, today the UAC has projects in varying degrees of readiness in almost all areas.

First of all, this is the Sukhoi SuperJet 100. Currently, about 100 aircraft have been delivered, which are operated in Russia, Europe, Latin America, South-East Asia. Yesterday STLC on the Sukhoi SuperJet 100 program. This is an extremely important event for us, since it plans to revive regional transportation in the south of Russia based at Rostov airport. We will also sign today to increase the fleet of aircraft for the period 2020-2021 in addition to those that Azimut will receive under the contract in 2017-2018 - this is 8 aircraft.

In the segment narrow-body aircraft, where the most competitive market is, you know that we have the MS-21 project. The aircraft made its first flight in May of this year and is now undergoing flight and certification tests. The first deliveries will be in 2019; according to our expectations, this is a worthy competitor that will occupy worthy place in the fleet of narrow-body aircraft. Of the large aircraft, we have a project with COMAC - this is the ShFDMS. We registered a joint venture. Active work is underway with Chinese partners, the technical appearance of this aircraft, its characteristics and the SHFDMS family of aircraft (wide-body long-range aircraft) have been agreed upon. A joint venture has been registered, active work is underway with Chinese partners, the technical appearance of the aircraft, characteristics, family are being agreed upon, and we are now at the beginning of preliminary design.

In the regional aircraft segment - the turboprop Il-114. That year, as you know, the decision was made to launch the Il-114-300 program. The aircraft's first flight is expected in 2018, with deliveries in 2021. There will be a second conference with operators as part of MAKS. I hope that the aircraft will fully meet the expectations of regional companies and we will try to take into account their requirements.

That's all I wanted to say. I give the floor to Tamara Kakushadze, vice president for marketing of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft.

Thank you for your attention!

Good afternoon, dear colleagues!

Literally in an hour. We are not afraid, we are even interested if you can compare our assessment with their assessment. This is a kind of professional experience for our team of marketers who present the UAC forecast.

This year is an anniversary for the UAC. We have been around for 10 years. We believe that we have achieved quite significant success. Starting with the fact that we have retained and developed our competencies in creating civil passenger aircraft. We have more than 100 SSJ 100 aircraft in operation. MC-21 currently has more than 175 firm orders, while still at the certification testing stage.

Also, as Mr. Masalov said, this year we signed an agreement and opened a joint venture with the Chinese aircraft manufacturing corporation COMAC in China for the full-scale launch of a program to create a wide-body family.

Over these 10 years, we have really actively improved and developed the basis and tools for forming a high-quality, fairly detailed and qualified overview of the market, its forecast for the long term, precisely so that our strategic objectives, which are set within the framework of the product line, meet the market requirements that we expect in the future.

I'll start with an overview of the Russian market. In terms of transportation market volume, we currently occupy 7th place in the world. We believe that by 2036, the passenger turnover of Russian airlines will increase almost 2.5 times and reach almost 500 billion passenger kilometers. At the same time, we estimate the cumulative average annual growth rate at 4.1%, which is slightly below the world average. Over the next 20 years, according to our forecast, Russian airlines will receive, based on their needs, about 1,170 new aircraft.

The existing firm orders currently placed by airlines for various products in different categories cover about 47% of expected future demand. It is worth noting that this demand is met to the greatest extent in groups of narrow-body aircraft with a size above 120 seats. It's about 57%. Among this order, a significant share is occupied by orders for the MC-21-300 aircraft.

We also predict high demand in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of 60-120 seats, somewhere around 15% of the total demand, which is higher than the global average. This is primarily due to the fact that active work is currently underway, including with government support, to develop effective methods of stimulating sales, including the introduction of effective operating leasing. We are actively working with the State Transport Leasing Company to ensure that the proposals we create are interesting and attractive to airlines.

CIS countries. We continue to classify certain countries in the region in this format because, in our assessment, the general problems of socio-economic development, close economic, cultural, and interpersonal ties between our countries determine precisely similar trends. Actually, mutual dependence, including that affecting the development of the market passenger transportation. According to our estimates, the volume of passenger air transportation in the CIS countries will increase by 2.5 times until 2036. At the same time, in the global passenger turnover, passenger transportation in the countries of the CIS region is less than 1%.

We believe that, taking into account the pace of development, taking into account the stabilization of population migration indicators, the average annual growth rate of passenger traffic in the region as a whole over 20 years will be about 4.6%. Demand for new passenger aircraft in this region is approximately estimated at 260 new aircraft. Existing orders currently placed cover about 18% of expected demand. But it is worth noting that in countries of this region The most active buyers are the secondary market, purchasing more than half of their total demand there. This was taken into account in our forecast, so it may seem modest to you at first glance, but we see such forecast indicators specifically for new equipment.

China. The next most interesting market for us is the Chinese market. During the forecast period, China, according to our assessment and the assessment of global institutions, will demonstrate the highest dynamics of development, including the dynamics of development of passenger transportation. This will ensure that China moves from 4th position, from the regions we are considering, to 3rd position, second only to the countries in the aggregate of the Asia-Pacific region and Europe, and ahead of the indicators in 20 years North America and all other regions combined.

We expect passenger traffic in China to increase by more than 3.3 times over the next 20 years. Based on the compound annual growth rate, we see that the Chinese market could be over 6%, which would lead to the valuation that we are demonstrating. Over 20 years, the Chinese market will require more than 7,000 aircraft. This is equivalent to US$1 trillion based on list prices. If we talk about the order portfolio that Chinese airlines already have, it covers only 19% of future demand in this market. And there is something to fight for here. We estimate that the greatest demand is expected in the segment of narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of more than 120 seats. Currently, it is covered by 17% of orders, mostly Boeing and Airbus, as well as orders for the national Chinese C919 project. We believe that based on our current relationships and our potential development with China, we can claim a significant share of this market for the MC-21 aircraft.

Asian-Pacific area. If we talk about the Asia-Pacific region as a whole, but without China, it can be noted that, despite the relatively small excess of the growth rate of passenger turnover over the world average, the Asia-Pacific region in the forecast period will take almost the leading position in the world passenger turnover market. First of all, these are: India, Malaysia, Indonesia. These countries provide the main drivers for future development and make the Asia-Pacific region the most interesting market for all manufacturers, which can transform the structure of the world fleet in the future.

Regarding global passenger traffic, according to our estimates, the Asia-Pacific region will account for almost 20% of global passenger traffic by 2036. According to UAC, the total demand for new passenger aircraft in this market will be more than 8,600 units. At the same time, the emphasis will be on aircraft of greater capacity. Although, if we talk about the structure of orders, at the moment, based on our forecast, the current portfolio of orders already covers 43% of the expected demand. One such significant distinctive feature of this market should be considered that the demand for wide-body aircraft in this region will stand out in the overall global demand indicators, according to our estimates, it amounted to about 23%, which is slightly more than the world average.

Let's move on to the European market. For the forecast period, the European market for passenger transportation will retain its leading position in the world ranking, but will experience quite serious competition from dynamically developing economies. This will primarily concern long-haul transportation and wide-body fleets. At the same time, passenger turnover will almost double. The compound annual growth rate will be 3.5%. This is lower than the world average, but this suggests that the European market has already reached a fairly serious saturation in demand. Its current fleet is large enough to handle large volumes of traffic. At the same time, Europe’s share in the global passenger fleet will decrease slightly from 23% in 2016, and by 2036 it will be about 19%.

It is expected that European airlines could purchase more than 8,600 aircraft over the next 20 years. This forecast takes into account the fact that the European region is a leader in the ranking of secondary market donors. It is rapidly renewing its fleet, transferring older aircraft to other regions. If we talk about the current order portfolio, it can be noted that in none of the capacity segments does the current order portfolio cover demand by more than 30%. Naturally, in the same region, even visually it is clear, there is a high proportion of development of narrow-body fleets. The largest share is narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of more than 140 seats.

Latin America. According to our estimates, during the forecast period, the growth rate of passenger turnover in Latin America will be significantly higher than the global one, but the initially modest indicators of total GDP in this region will most likely lead to the maintenance of a serious distance in the total volume of passenger traffic relative to the regional leaders in passenger turnover.

At the same time, starting from a small base today, we expect a threefold increase in passenger traffic at a cumulative average annual growth rate of volumes passenger air transportation about 5.7%. But its share in the global passenger transportation market will not exceed 6.5% in 20 years. The total demand for new passenger aircraft is estimated at 3,400 aircraft. Of the announced firm orders for new aircraft, only 29% of our forecast demand is covered. We expect a record large share of deliveries in the segment of narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of 120 or more seats.

Near East. Also an interesting market for UAC. Along with China and Latin America in terms of passenger turnover growth rates, it will be significantly ahead of other regions of the world, but it is small in population and has a small total GDP on a global scale, which will not allow reducing the distance between the leaders and this region.

We expect that by 2036 passenger traffic will increase by almost 3.2 times, with a compound annual growth rate of passenger traffic of approximately 6%. The region's share in total passenger traffic will increase from 9.5% in 2016 to 12%. This is a big leap. It is worth noting that we see more than half of the deliveries of new aircraft in the wide-body segment. Due to this, the share will increase to a greater extent. At the same time, 2/3 of these deliveries are expected in the segment of the group of wide-body aircraft, the capacity of which is higher than 320 seats. It can be said that airlines in the region will provide up to 60% of the total global demand for these ultra-large aircraft.

North America. The air transportation market of the region's countries will develop and follow general global trends, but, taking into account the redistribution of global economic activity, it will gradually lose its position. At the turn of 2036, this market will give way to the palm of transportation not only to Europe, but will also be behind China and the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, the volume of passenger air transportation, according to our expectations, will almost double, with an average annual growth rate of passenger turnover of 2.7 times.

A low figure, almost the same as in Europe, but this is due to the fact that the market is highly saturated, the initially large current structure of the fleet, the market saturation rate is already quite high. What is important, according to our estimates, the North American market share in the overall global balance will decrease from 24% to 17%, losing its position to emerging markets. A characteristic feature of the region is a high share in the expected demand for regional jet aircraft from 60 to 90 seats. This is about 19% of the total number of new aircraft in the region. At that time, according to general global averages, this segment accounts for no more than 6%.

Africa. Let us note the prospects for the passenger transportation market in Africa. According to the UAC, they will be determined primarily by more than a 50% increase in population over the next 20 years. Combined with rather modest indicators for the economic development of the region. The region as a whole is highly fragmented. Central and Northern Africa are very different from each other in terms of transportation indicators and in their structure of formation of route networks. This makes certain adjustments that we took into account in our forecast. As a result, we give the African market an expectation that by 2036 the volume of passenger traffic will increase by 2.5 times, with a cumulative annual rate of passenger air traffic at the level of global indicators of 4.5-4.6%. The share of the global passenger market will remain virtually unchanged, for 2016 it is 2.1%, for 2036 - 2.2%. African airlines, through purchases on the secondary aircraft market, will satisfy about 41% of the total demand for passenger aircraft.

This circumstance largely determined the amount of demand for new passenger aircraft, which is represented quite modestly. There are less than 1,00 aircraft for 20 years. In this situation, contrary to the current structure of the fleet, we see that the market for wide-body aircraft promises to become the most profitable in this region. Let’s say, not in terms of the number of seats, but in terms of the amount of income that will come to manufacturers from the sale of this aircraft. We estimate the demand for wide-body aircraft alone to be more than 200 units over 20 years.

In general, if we talk about the structure of the market and demand that we forecast for a 20-year period, it can be noted that the global fleet will almost double and reach 47,000 aircraft. At the same time, it will be significantly updated, largely due to the fact that part will be due to the need to update the current fleet of retiring vessels, and part will be due to the need associated with the development of air transportation itself.

In the current forecast 20 years, we estimate that, in total for all markets, about 42,000 new passenger aircraft will be required. It is worth noting that this demand is influenced by many factors, both demand purely in the global economy and an increase in the global population. According to national and international organizations, the population in the next 20 years will grow by more than 1.3 billion people, which will be an increase of about 20%. Global GDP will increase by more than $50 trillion.

The doubling of the passenger aircraft fleet will be influenced by changes and modernization of the existing infrastructure, all market offers more planes with new performance indicators that will lead to lower transportation costs and increased mobility of the population.

In many regions we expect government support for airlines. There are many national programs, which stimulate the development and modernization of ground infrastructure and the development of airline fleets. It is worth noting that we see the largest increase (more than 140%) in the segment of large narrow-body aircraft. This is exactly the class where the MS-21 proposal falls.

We estimate that the fleet of narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of less than 120 seats will almost double. As part of the implementation of the wide-body project, we see that the fleet of wide-body aircraft with a capacity of up to 300 seats will increase by more than 70%.

Thank you for your attention.

The Russian aviation industry is beginning the largest reform since 2006, when the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) was created. Now we're talking about on the merger of UAC, Irkut Corporation and the company Civil aircraft Sukhoi" into a single structure that will deal with all civilian programs of the UAC. It will also become the head division of the entire corporation.

This means that the UAC considers civil aircraft manufacturing to be a key area. On the one hand, in the context of a reduction in state defense orders, the inevitability of which has already been repeatedly stated at the highest level, aircraft manufacturers have no choice. On the other hand, if Russia’s authority in the field of military aviation is not disputed by anyone, then on the market civil aircraft Our country falls into the category of outsiders.

Which is quite fair, considering that last year only 30 civil aircraft were produced in Russia. For comparison, market leaders Boeing and Airbus produced 748 and 577 aircraft, respectively.

A logical question arises: what can the UAC count on in this situation?

Big Pie

According to the forecast that the United Aircraft Corporation presented at the July MAKS 2017 air show, global demand for new passenger aircraft with a capacity of more than 30 seats in the next twenty years will amount to 41,800 aircraft with a total cost of almost 6 trillion dollars.

At the same time, the greatest demand among airlines will be for narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of 120 or more seats, which will account for 63% of the total number of new aircraft. For this segment, UAC is developing the MC-21 program.

New jet aircraft with a capacity of 61-120 seats, about 4.6 thousand units will be sold by 2036 (11% of the total). This segment of the UAC is represented by the Sukhoi Superjet SSJ 100 program.

The demand for turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 30 seats or more will be about 2.3 thousand units. In this segment, UAC is developing the IL-114 program.
The total demand for wide-body aircraft will be 7,450 aircraft. For this segment, UAC, together with the China Civil Aviation Corporation SOMAS, plans to develop and produce a new generation wide-body long-range aircraft. This year, a joint venture was opened in Shanghai to manage the program.

That is, theoretically, Russian aircraft manufacturers have something to respond to market demands. In practice, everything is a little more complicated.

Three gray horses

To begin with, today only the Sukhoi Superjet is really present on the market. This is the first domestic aircraft developed after a quarter-century break. Unfortunately, the hopes associated with this project were only partially realized.

Pilots who have had the opportunity to fly the Superjet rate the aircraft very highly - no worse than the Airbus A-320 (with better efficiency) and definitely better than the Brazilian Embraer. At the same time, they acknowledge the presence of many minor malfunctions that do not, however, affect flight safety. The main complaint of professionals is related to very poor service support, which is why planes sit idle for a long time without spare parts.

Passengers have more complaints - they note poor noise and vibration insulation ("I sat in seat 7F near the engine and received a free vibration massage - very strong noise and vibration"), as well as small and low windows.

Most often, Russians compare the SSJ 100 with the UAZ Patriot car: good transport for passengers without any special complaints. It is noteworthy that Mexican pilots (the Mexican company Interjet purchased 30 SSJ 100) called the Superjet a tank.

It is clear that with such characteristics it is not easy to conquer the world market. As a result, the project remains chronically unprofitable. To achieve profitability, UAC needs to sell at least 300 aircraft, but so far it has sold three times less. The maximum annual production of SSJ 100 was reached in 2014 - 35 aircraft were produced. In 2015-2016, due to changes in the macroeconomic situation, sales plans were adjusted to 17 and 18 units, respectively.

For comparison, the Brazilian Embraer produced 225 aircraft last year: 117 business jets and 108 regional aircraft - competitors of the Superjet. It is not surprising that UAC President Yuri Slyusar recently announced a refusal to produce large volumes of SSJs: the corporation plans to produce 30-40 Superjets per year, but does not intend to “scale this project to large volumes.”

Now the main hope of the UAC is the MS-21 project. This is an aircraft whose characteristics are close to today’s segment leader – the Canadian Bombardier CS300. Like the Canadian aircraft, the Russian one is built using the most modern technologies using composite materials and with the same Pratt & Whitney engines (however, in the future it is planned to install the domestic PD-14 engine on the MC-21). Economical engines and a lightweight body allow the Bombardier CS300 and MC-21 to save up to 20% of fuel compared to Boeing and Airbus aircraft of this class. At the same time, the MC-21 is more spacious than the Bombardier CS300 - it has 176 passenger seats (the Canadian has 130), which makes its use more profitable.

Il-114 is a plane from the past: it made its first flight back in 1999 and until 2012 it was produced at the Tashkent Aviation Production Association named after. V. P. Chkalova. A total of ten Il-114s were produced with Pratt & Whitney Canada engines. Now these aircraft are part of the Uzbekistan Airways fleet.
The United Aircraft Corporation plans to resume production of the Il-114 with Russian TV7-117ST engines at the plant in Lukhovitsy, which will produce 12-18 aircraft per year. The total production volume, including civilian and special versions, may reach 100 vehicles. The updated Il-114 should make its first flight in 2018.

Aeroflot versus the Ministry of Industry and Trade

The main problem that the UAC must solve is not related to the development or production of new aircraft, but to their sales. It is already clear that Superjet will not reach the production target of 300 aircraft required for the project to pay off. MS-21, with current investment volumes, will pay for itself after the sale of 200 aircraft. The already produced Il-114 has the greatest chance of paying off - if the planned 100 aircraft are produced and sold, the project can be considered commercially successful.

Meanwhile, according to Boeing estimates, the needs of the Russian market for the foreseeable future will amount to a maximum of 40 passenger aircraft of all types per year. It is unlikely that MS-21, SSJ-100 and Il-114 will occupy this entire volume. Although the government is doing everything possible and impossible for this. In particular, the Ministry of Industry and Trade proposed abolishing benefits for the import of foreign aircraft, which “will establish customs and tariff protection of the domestic market in the interests of Russian aircraft - the SSJ 100 extended version and the MC-21-300.”

Aeroflot actively opposed this innovation, and 31 (!) foreign aircraft are scheduled to enter its fleet in 2018. The company sent a letter to First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, which notes that if the preferential treatment is suspended, additional costs for importing aircraft will exceed 25 billion rubles. As a result, Aeroflot will have to reduce its purchase plan for aircraft “both foreign and Russian-made,” which will not allow it to expand its route network, “including regional and socially significant routes.”

Photo: portal Moscow 24/Lidiya Shironina

Unreal export

Even if the main one Russian airline is not eager to refuse to import aircraft in order to support the Superjet and MC-21, what can we say about foreigners. Moreover, foreign buyers of new Russian aircraft will have to take into account a bunch of additional risks.

Firstly, the Irkut Corporation, the manufacturer of the MS-21, is known in the world as a manufacturer of fighter aircraft. The first civil aircraft produced by the corporation will be greeted by airlines with great caution. It will be possible to talk about purchases only when Aeroflot has gained experience in operating the MC-21 (which will have to purchase new aircraft on a voluntary-compulsory basis).

Secondly, any new aircraft requires fine-tuning and modification, which on average lasts about 15 years. And not a single serious airline will order large quantities of aircraft that have not passed this period. But even then, new manufacturers such as Irkut can only rely on orders from small carriers that do not have their own aircraft maintenance and repair facilities. It is these companies that are less tied to market leaders.

Thirdly, in 2018, the Chinese C919 enters the medium-haul aircraft market, which, relying on the massive support of its government, can become a serious competitor to all global manufacturers.

Thus, at least in the next 15-20 years, the Russian aircraft industry will be a planned loss-making industry, living largely on budget subsidies. Under these conditions, there is a very high probability that the Ministry of Finance will lobby for another optimization of the aviation industry, after which only the export-attractive military segment will remain from the industry.

In the context of the decline in which the world economy is located, infrastructure sectors, in particular transport, have suffered quite severely. About the global crisis freight transport, especially those carried out by sea, enough has already been written and said, and here the situation in Russia differs slightly from the global situation, at least in terms of the dynamics of operational indicators.


Revenue from passenger and cargo air transportation



Source: IATA


The turning point, by and large, came during the financial crisis of 2008 - since then, global trade turnover has still not been able to confidently return to the previous state of vigorous growth, being limited to a sluggish recovery, but passenger transportation, with the restoration of disposable incomes of the population, has been able to - In the last five years, the industry has experienced a real boom.


Dynamics of passenger and cargo air transportation volumes



Source: IATA


With regard to civil air transportation, however, the situation is noteworthy in that the situation on the domestic market with the onset of the currency crisis diverged from the global trend as a whole by almost 180%. There are several main reasons for this, and it is their consideration, coupled with a general overview of this market, which, without exaggeration, covers almost the entire planet, that this article will be devoted to.


The history of civil aviation goes back more than a century. Since the First World War, it has experienced several unique intra-industry technological structures before adopting the direction of development that most airlines follow today. The first passenger monoplanes were small, carried 7-10 passengers each and were mainly variations on the theme of military aircraft of the design bureaus in which they were created. In the 30s, the trend changed to the diametrically opposite one with the advent of the DC-3, the most popular passenger plane in history, which, in turn, served the armed forces well. The 50s were marked by the appearance of the first serial jet airliners, which by the beginning of the 70s, with the active growth of transcontinental passenger transportation and the emergence of more powerful engines led to a period of gigantomania in the industry, when manufacturers tried to build, and airlines, in turn, operate the largest possible aircraft that could accommodate several hundred people, since the Boeing-707 and other aircraft of a similar type in use at that time with a flow of passengers they could no longer cope on busy routes. The successful introduction of such liners was prevented by the oil crisis, which made the use of large and uneconomical aircraft unprofitable, but their capacity still played a role - with the consistent increase in passenger turnover, they are actively used major airlines still.


Historical dynamics of global passenger traffic





Towards the beginning of this century, the emphasis shifted towards the development of engines with greater fuel efficiency and the large-scale use of small regional aircraft with a capacity of about 120-180 seats - according to the forecasts of the vast majority of industry experts, the near future lies with them, and over the next twenty years 70% of demand On the part of airlines, it will be necessary for this class of aircraft. In total, airlines around the world now use about 22 thousand passenger airliners, it is assumed that this number will double by 2034, with the total demand amounting to about 38 thousand aircraft.


Forecast of changes in the world passenger aircraft fleet



Source: Boeing Market Report


Of this number, 16 thousand will replace aging aircraft currently operated by airlines, and 22 thousand will ensure an increase in the fleet corresponding to the growing passenger traffic - analysts agree that in the next two decades the total passenger turnover will increase by more than two and a half times, with the lion's share of this increase will have to do with regional transportation, mainly in Asian countries.

Forecast of global passenger traffic dynamics



Source: United Aircraft Corporation market review


The current market trend is mainly characterized by the effects of liberalization of the air travel market, namely the increased number of airlines, increased competition and falling fares, which makes travel more affordable and supports passenger demand. Also, an essential characteristic of the market today is globalization - the concepts of national companies are very vague, many carriers operate under code-share agreements, servicing “consolidated” flights with transfers from one company’s aircraft to another within the framework of one air ticket. At the same time, in developed markets there is a process of consolidation of companies - this applies to Europe, the USA, and Russia. In parallel with this, the boundaries between the price segments occupied by specific companies are gradually disappearing - there is a convergence of traditional transportation and the low-cost format in the form of combined business models.


At the moment, the undisputed leader in terms of passenger traffic is the United States, not least due to the highest intensity of domestic traffic due to its vast area and relatively uniform location major cities in the eastern part of the country, as well as a high degree of population mobility. In the list of ten airlines that became the world leaders in passenger volume in 2015, the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 6th places are occupied by American carriers - American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Delta Airlines and United Arilines, respectively.

Top 10 airlines by passenger turnover in 2015, billion pkm




By volume air fleet by mid-2016, American companies completely occupied the first five places - American Airlines with 1,556 aircraft, Delta Air lines with 1,330, United Airlines with 1,229, Southwest Airlines with 720 and the world leader in air cargo transportation FedEx Express with 688. Thus, we can calculate that the top five companies alone account for about a quarter of the world’s entire aircraft fleet. Also, American Airlines, United Airlines and Delta Air lines are leaders in the number of airports connected by flights of these companies, however, in terms of the number of countries included in the route map, American carriers do not even make it into the top five - the leader is Turkish Airlines, which operates flights to 108 countries world, followed by the largest European airlines - Lufthansa, Air France and British Airways, and Qatar Airways closes the top five.


Moving directly to the current state of the market, it makes sense to first of all note that there were two main factors that influenced the global dynamics of demand in the last completed year - the gradually growing demand from the countries of the East and the continued collapse in oil prices. The fall in prices in the commodity market directly mediated the fall in the dollar cost of jet fuel, the cost of which accounts for about a third of the total operating expenses of airlines. By reducing them, carriers were able to afford to reduce tariffs without loss of profitability, thereby attracting new customers.


Dynamics of the cost of aviation fuel

had a beneficial effect on her aviation market. The demand for new aircraft has noticeably revived, since one of the main problems of airlines continues to be an outdated fleet of equipment. It is expected that in the coming years more than 1,000 aircraft of European and domestic production (including those produced in the CIS countries) will be purchased.

The leaders of world aircraft production (Airbus and Boeing) predict two types of development of air passenger transportation. According to the vision of Airbus specialists, a hub-and-spoke model (hubs and spokes) will be implemented, which essentially means the following. From regional airports, medium and small planes take passengers to a large hub, from where long-distance flights are carried out to similar centers around the world.

Boeing analysts see a different path of development, proposing a point-to-point model, that is, the passenger gets to their destination with minimal transfers. Both companies presented long-haul aircraft designs to the market that would enable the implementation of the proposed models for the development of air travel.

The Russian aviation market implements both models. The number of point-to-point flights within the country will inevitably increase, and hub-and-spoke flights will be carried out international flights. Already, the demand for wide-body aircraft is increasing, and the demand for long-distance international flights, according to experts, will grow over the next 15-18 years to 5% annually. Growing incomes of citizens, liberalization of transport laws and cheaper services will affect the domestic aviation market, which will also grow.

The situation now and the near future

As of today, there are about two hundred airlines operating in Russia. However, by 2025, a maximum of a couple of dozen of them will remain successful. Small regional companies continue to go bankrupt, since the majority of them consist of obsolete (still Soviet) aircraft received from them, which have practically exhausted their flight life. But such companies cannot afford to purchase new equipment, and will be forced to leave the aviation market.

Only large network airlines can count on success in the future. They still operate successfully today, have an established network of routes that are profitable and familiar to passengers, and have fleet renewal programs. Among the successful airlines that represent the country's aviation market are Aeroflot, S7, UTair, AiRUnion, Transaero and some others. The share of passenger traffic of each by 2020 will be at least 10 million people annually. It is possible that closely related companies may consolidate in the future, which will allow them to gain considerable advantages and profitably purchase new aircraft.

Already, the most successful airlines in Russia are abandoning the secondary aircraft market, along with the world's leading airlines, purchasing the latest developments from aircraft manufacturers. The only drawback for the aviation market and the domestic economy as a whole is that the Russian aviation industry will not be able to present a decent competitive aircraft for medium-haul flights in 10-12 years (with the possible exception of the Sukhoi SuperJet).

How the regional air transportation market will change

It is in the domestic aviation market for regional transportation that many experts see the future of aviation. Here the main competitor continues to be the railway: cheaper, simpler, no passport or face control required, no need for advance registration. However, it is expected that over time the price of air tickets will become closer to railway tickets and more affordable, and security measures will be tightened at train stations. Of course, even an increase in the price of railway tickets will leave their positions 20-30% more profitable, but the absolute advantage railway will leave.

If taking the train is only slightly more convenient than going through security on a plane, and the ticket prices are comparable, then many passengers will ultimately prefer planes. Their undeniable advantage in the speed of travel to the desired location is undeniable. It is from this moment that air transportation by small aircraft over short distances will boost the Russian aviation market, when half-forgotten flights between neighboring cities and regions will return.

There is hope that the expected gigantic potential of the domestic air transportation market will prevent the authorities from handing it over to foreign carriers. Today they do not have access to the domestic Russian aviation market; there is an agreement at the intergovernmental level regulating air transportation between Russia and other countries. The number of flights is clearly recorded and even a specific carrier from the country is determined. The leading position is occupied by Aeroflot, which is assigned carrier powers on most foreign routes. However, after joining the WTO it will not be easy for him to maintain his position.

The American concern Boeing has raised its forecast for the growth of the market for new passenger aircraft. On Thursday in London, the company presented its annual Current Market Outlook, estimating total cost required new aircraft at $5.2 trillion. The concern predicts demand for 36,770 new aircraft over the next 20 years. The previous forecast was about 35 thousand aircraft worth $4.8 trillion.

“This is a strong and stable market,” said VP of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “With the introduction of new, more fuel-efficient aircraft, air travel growth is being driven by customers who want the ability to fly wherever they want, whenever they want.”

Demand figures have been boosted this year by the single-aisle aircraft market, which is forecast to become the fastest-growing and most dynamic segment as low-cost airlines continue to enter the market. This segment will require 25,680 new aircraft at $2.56 trillion, representing 70% of projected demand.

“Given the stunning order and delivery forecast, we see 160-passenger aircraft as the core of the single-aisle market,” Tinseth said. “This market undoubtedly gravitates towards this dimension, which allows us to combine operational efficiency with the flexibility of the route network. The Next-Generation 737-800 and new 737 MAX 8 aircraft offer our customers the highest revenue potential in this category."

Boeing's main competitor, the European aircraft concern Airbus, is also betting on the narrow-body market. Sales of the flagship A321 model in the narrow-body aircraft segment increased by 20% and now account for about half of the total volume of narrow-body aircraft produced by the concern.

Demand for other types of aircraft will also increase. The forecast for sales in the regional airliner segment increased by 25%, to $100 billion, or 2,490 units. In 2013, the company forecast deliveries of regional jets at $80 billion, or 2,020 units.

Sales will also increase in the small wide-body and medium wide-body aircraft segments. At the same time, the number of orders in the segment of small wide-body aircraft, despite the growth in market volume, will decrease from 4,530 to 4,520 units.

Unlike the small and medium wide-body aircraft segment, the market for large wide-body aircraft with a passenger capacity of more than 400 seats will shrink, Boeing analysts predict. The concern expects a reduction in sales from $280 billion to $240 billion, and the total number of aircraft sold will be reduced from 760 to 620 units. According to Boeing estimates, the capacity of an average wide-body airliner for two aisles will increase by 20 seats in the next 20 years, and a narrow-body - by 10. Airplanes will become longer, aisles will become narrower, and the distances between seats will be reduced.

Over the next two decades, the market for new aircraft will gradually become more balanced with geographical point vision. At the same time, the main driver for market growth will be the Asia-Pacific region.

Over the next 20 years, the Asia-Pacific market, including China, will lead in the total number of aircraft supplied to the region. According to Boeing analysts, in 2033 the total size of the Asia-Pacific aircraft fleet will increase from the current 5,470 to 15,220 aircraft. The CIS market will also grow significantly. Over the next 20 years, the number of aircraft operating in the CIS will increase from 1,180 to 1,820 units.

The American aviation concern's immediate plans include the presentation of a new generation of the medium wide-body Boeing 787-9, which is 7 m longer than the current top model Dreamliner 787-8 and can accommodate 40 more passengers. The aircraft should be presented to the general public for the first time early next week at the Farnborough Air Show. Boeing's main competitor, Airbus, will also present a new long-haul aircraft, the A350, with deliveries scheduled to begin at the end of 2014.