Flying on airplanes is dangerous, we think. Statistics show that trains are even more dangerous. To what extent do our ideas about safety correspond to disaster statistics?

The period of vacations and holidays confronts us with the inevitable choice of the type of transport on which we will go towards the alluring warmth of Goa and snow-covered landscapes Austrian Alps or on a labor landing to visit my mother in Tver.

The choice is not an easy matter, and even more so when it comes to transport, because many interests collide, including price, speed, convenience and safety.

And safety among them, as the All-Russian Center for Public Opinion Research found out, is the most important criterion. To what extent do our ideas about safety correspond to disaster statistics?

Russians believe in the safety of trains

Most without dangerous looking transport according to VTsIOM in 2013, Russians traditionally recognized the train. Despite the fact that trust in him over the past three years has fallen by more than 10% and this moment is 46%. coupled with the electric train, which another 41% of respondents voted for, Russian Railways clearly enjoys trust.

Airplanes also traditionally do not inspire confidence among our population. Only 16% of Russians believe in security air transport, which is almost half as much as last year. You don’t have to take the car into account at all; it is not even included in the rating of safe modes of transport, since it is considered inherently dangerous.

However, in the confrontation between modes of transport, not everything is so simple. For many years, statistical data has been telling us that we are afraid to fly in vain, since an airplane is the most safe look transport. So why don’t we trust the smart science of statistics. It turns out there is a reason for this.

NOT a safe plane

In fact, statistics largely depend on the calculation method. An airplane is indeed the safest form of transport, but only in terms of tragedies per kilometers traveled. It is the data of this method that is published on almost all transport and airline websites.

The trick is that, according to the same statistics, most plane crashes occur at the time of takeoff and landing; planes die during the journey extremely rarely. That is why this method is so loved by air carriers.

By the way, based on tragedies per kilometers traveled, the most dangerous way of transportation is a motorcycle and attention! walking. Pedestrians die not much less than motorcyclists.

But there are other calculation methods, and here the plane doesn’t look nearly as nice. The UK's Department for Transport for Local and Regions (DTLR) has published data obtained by calculating passenger fatalities by the number of journeys and travel speeds.

And it turned out that the train was still safer than an airplane and takes an honorable first place in the ranking of the smallest number dead passengers. It is interesting that in both cases the most dangerous type of transport remains a motorcycle.

The aircraft's performance in terms of the total number of fatalities is far from being the best. In a study by the project center, an aviation manager (PhD Plotnikov I.I. “Method for assessing the danger of modes of transport”) over 10 years, the number of victims of air crashes is second only to car accidents, taking an honorable 2nd place. And in terms of the number of deaths per 1 million passengers transported, it is completely in the lead.

Thus, out of the five research methods, the train is still the safer mode of transport in four. So the intuitive assumptions of our compatriots in fact do not contradict the statistics at all, no matter what the airlines claim.

The safest planes

But we still have to fly, since there are places where trains do not go, and the speed of movement still plays an important role.

Contrary to the pessimistic expectations of Russians and gloomy Internet posts, our country is not a leader in the number of plane crashes either this year or in previous years.

According to the portal statista.com, the United States has been leading the tragic list for many years, and I must say by a wide margin. Between 1945 and October 2013, there were 763 air tragedies in the United States. In Russia there are only 304.

According to the Aircraft Accident Data Analysis Center (JACDEC) safe airline in the world in 2013 became Finnish FINNAIR. In general, the list of the best looks like this:

1.Finnair (Finland)
2. Air New Zealand (New Zealand)
3. Cathay Pacific Airways (Hong Kong)
4. Emirates (UAE)
5. Etihad Airways (UAE)

6. Eva Air (Taiwan)
7. TAP (Portugal)
8. Hainan Airlines (China)
9. Virgin Australia (Australia)

10. British Airways UK
11. Lufthansa (Germany)
12. All Nippon Airways (Japan)

The list also includes two Russian airlines: Transaero in 16th place and Aeroflot in 39th place. We still have something to strive for.

Why do planes crash?

In order to somehow reassure themselves before an air trip, many are interested in the deterioration of a particular carrier’s fleet. A ride on a young plane is somehow calming in itself. However, this is absolutely not supported by statistics.

According to the “Let's Fly Together” blog, the picture of the deterioration of the Russian aircraft fleet for the period of October 2013 looks like this:

1. Aeroflot - 5.2 years
2. Taimyr (NordStar) - 9.2 years
3. Siberia - S7 (including Globus) - 9.7 years
4. Russia - 10.3 years
5. Red Wings - 10.7 years

6. Muscovy - 11.1 years
7. Yakutia - 11.3 years
8. Ak Bars Aero - 11.3 years
9. Vladivostok Air - 11.9 years
10. Ural Airlines— 12.1 years

11. Donavia - 12.5 years
12. Tatarstan - 12.7 years (data taking into account the plane crash in Kazan)
13. Severstal - 13.4 years
14. Orenburg Airlines - 13.8 years
15. Yamal - 13.8 years

16. North wind(Nord Wind) - 14.1 years
17. Kolavia (TUI) - 14.2 years
18. RusLine - 14.3 years
19. I Fly - 14.9 years
20. Transaero - 15.9 years

21. Flight - 16.6 years
22. Icarus - 17.1 years
23. Aurora - 17.7 years
24. UTair (including UTair-Express) - 19.7 years
25. Gazpromavia - 20.8 years

26. VIM-avia - 21.4 years
27. Nordavia - 21.9 years
28. Tulpar - 24.9 years
29. Grozny Avia - 25.9 years
30. Saratov Airlines - 26.3 years

31. Alrosa - 28.3 years
32. Izhavia - 29.4 years
33. Angara - 29.4 years
34. Iraero - 31.3 years
35. Tomskavia - 37.8 years
36. Polar Airlines - 39.2 years

These data are confirmed by Forbes, noting Aeroflot as the company with the youngest aircraft fleet in Russia - less than 5 years old. It must be said that Finnair, the leader in safe air transportation, has an average aircraft age of about 9 years.

The aircraft are the same age Russian company Siberia (S7), but this company is known for its sad list of plane crashes.

This alone suggests that planes rarely crash due to old age. Statistics have no doubt about this. You can, of course, calm yourself down and board a “younger” plane, but the chance that it will not crash is no greater than that of an “older” plane.

And all because planes crash most often due to pilot errors, that is, all because of the notorious human factor (there’s no getting away from it).

According to the agency AVIASAFETY.ru

— 68% of plane crashes are caused by human factors, of which 47% are pilot errors, 13% are negligence ground services and 8% - terrorist attacks.

— 18% — equipment failure. Moreover, both old and new equipment can fail.

— 14% — the reasons have not been established.

Aerophobia

What to do when you still need to fly, but it’s very scary? Psychologists give a lot of advice on this issue. Let's look at the most reasonable of them:

— If behind the fear of flying there is a fear of heights, a fear of enclosed spaces, a tendency to panic attacks, the issue must be resolved not with airplanes, but with these disorders.

“But most often, aerophobia hides a person’s desire for complete control over the situation and a craving for a feeling of absolute security. Needless to say, both are unattainable. Therefore, we must take it for granted that not everything in life depends on us, including the question of life and death.

“We must also accept as a given that, no matter how hard we want, we will not be able to influence whether the plane will fall or not.” Therefore, there is no need to study aerobatics instructions or scrupulously study the details of all plane crashes. This will not relieve nervousness, but, on the contrary, will aggravate it.

- The cure for fear in the form of alcohol is also not the best option. It will not solve the problem, but will easily create new ones.

The main thing is to understand that you need to deal with yourself, and not with the plane. Whether you tremble with fear or not will not change the possibility of a plane crash, but you will definitely ruin your nerves.

— The world's worst plane crash occurred in 1977. Two Boeing 747 aircraft collided at Los Rodeos airport (Tenerife). 574 people died. Due to errors by ground services and poor visibility, the two planes ended up on the same runway and moved towards each other until a tragic collision occurred.

— Another large-scale disaster also belongs to the Boeing 747. In August 1985, the airliner lost control and crashed into a mountain near Tokyo. 520 people died. The cause of the plane's death was the destruction of the tail unit.

— In Russia, An-2 planes crash most often. But this is not due to the fact that the plane is bad, but to the fact that it is the most common in Russia.

— 2009 became the safest year for Russian airlines. Not a single person died on scheduled planes.

— 2012 was the safest year for aviation in the world. In Russia, this year was unfortunately marred by 4 plane crashes.

— After the collapse of the USSR, Aeroflot suffered two plane crashes. In 1994 he suffered Airbus crash A310.

The pilot put his 15-year-old son at the controls. The teenager managed to disable the autopilot, the plane went into a tailspin and crashed. 75 people died.

In 2008, due to mistakes by pilots who had alcohol in their blood, a Boeing 737 crashed near Perm. 87 people died.

- Most mysterious plane crash The plane with the poetic name “High-Speed ​​Romance of the Sky” was believed to have crashed in November 1957 for Pan Am.

Just starting trip around the world, the plane crashed in Pacific Ocean. 44 people died. The reasons are still unknown. The plane made no distress calls, and toxicology tests on the bodies showed high levels of carbon monoxide.

— The first person to survive the plane crash was American Foy Kenneth Roberts. The plane carrying American soldiers crashed on June 14, 1943 in Australia. Roberts survived, but forever forgot everything about the accident itself and lost the ability to speak.

Photo: depositphotos.com

Introduce modern life impossible without transport. But once upon a time he was not there! Just think, the first wheeled cart appeared in Mesopotamia in 3500 BC! The need to carry heavy loads forced man to use animal strength. Then he invented a boat, a sail, and built the first ship. The invention of the engine gave a new impetus to the further development of transport and the emergence of new types of transport. Transport has undergone a long process of development and further improvement since those ancient times. And now in the 21st century, life without transport is not only difficult, for many it is almost impossible. Society is developing, the modern rhythm of life requires increased activity from a person, so the need to travel long distances increases.

Nowadays, being in another country or even another continent within a few hours is no longer a problem. Humanity has achieved amazing success in the development of transport. For ease of movement by humans, the following were invented:

  1. Water transport.
  2. Air.
  3. Ground.

Now people have cars, trains, planes, helicopters, ships, yachts, motorcycles, ATVs, buses, and trams in their service. The list goes on. Moreover, new types are also appearing, for example, the electric car. Progress cannot be stopped.

With the advent of such a variety of means of transportation, the problem of covering long distances was solved. However, another question has arisen that concerns everyone without exception, which type of transport is the safest. The safety criterion when choosing a particular means of transportation is perhaps the most important.

Surely everyone has thought at least once about what is safer to drive. There are a lot of misconceptions and erroneous conclusions. For example, some people think that driving your own car is the most reliable way to travel. This is argued by the fact that following traffic rules and being attentive on the road is the key to safety. However, we should not forget that there are many unscrupulous drivers on the road, and some do not even know the traffic rules. Sad but true. Only one thing is clear: there is no absolutely safe form of transport. However, humanity will never be able to completely abandon transport. But do not despair and go to extremes, limiting yourself on trips and long journeys. Everything is not as sad as it might seem.

To determine the safest mode of transport, you need to look at statistics. Interestingly, according to research, air transport is the safest. This fact causes surprise and distrust among most people. This is partly due to the large size of the aircraft themselves. When a plane crash occurs, a large number of people die, and the scale of the tragedy seems enormous. However, in reality this is not at all the case. The organization of flights is approached with great responsibility and caution. There is always pre-screening at airports. Airplanes must undergo a technical inspection (before each flight!). If you analyze the statistical indicators for the year, you can see that many more people die in car accidents. In Russia, more than 35 thousand people die in one year. The ratio of fatalities in plane crashes and car accidents is 1:1000.

Airplanes are becoming safer. There are (fortunately!) fewer and fewer accidents due to technical faults. In crowded cities where the roads are congested, the likelihood of getting into an accident increases. However, many (almost 85% of the population) continue to think that airplanes are more dangerous. Fear of flying leads to the development of aerophobia. It is difficult to fight it, and it is almost impossible to convince a person that an airplane is the safest means. However, the facts indicate the opposite. More people die on the roads in 4 days than in 10 years of airplane flights.

The Boeing 737 is considered one of the most reliable and safe aircraft. If we look at the average frequency of flights, we can say that every second there are about 1,250 Boeing aircraft in the air. The accident rate is as follows: for every two million flights (possibly) 1 aircraft. Indeed, reliability is high! Moreover, the chances of survival in a plane crash are much greater than in any other accident. This is confirmed by studies conducted in the USA: out of 53,487 people, 51,207 survived as a result of plane crashes. In the event of splashdown, the chances of survival increase by 50%. The next safest means of transport after the plane are water transport and railway.

All data and facts indicate that the safest is still an airplane. You should not be afraid of flying and refuse to fly, thereby depriving yourself of the opportunity to see new countries, experience the beauty of the world and broaden your horizons. Experienced pilots and crews do everything to ensure flight safety.

To understand whether flying on airplanes is really dangerous, you should look at official statistics. In 2013, 31 plane crashes were officially registered. It is important to realize that these tragic events happened not only with Russian planes, but throughout the world as a whole, and these flights also included cargo transportation, and not just passenger ones.

It is clear that the number of accidents on highways is much higher. Thus, according to official statistics, only in the first half of the year in the territory Russian Federation There were 62,984 reported road traffic accidents, which is approximately 346 accidents per day.

As for rail transport, the statistics here are less deplorable, but the indicators are far from being comparable to aviation ones. Thus, on the Gorky Railway alone in 2013, there were 17 accidents in which 12 people died. Unfortunately, there are no general statistics on railway accidents for the world as a whole, but in some countries, for example, in India, the situation is much worse than in Russia, so it becomes clear that the number of accidents in absolute terms in air transport is much lower than the same indicator on highways or railways.

When analyzing disasters, it is, of course, worth taking into account the widespread use of cars. But the number of flights per day is quite comparable to the number of trains leaving the stations every day.

The severity of the consequences of a disaster on different modes of transport

As a rule, there are no survivors. However, the same dry statistics indicate that this statement is not entirely true. In 2013, out of 827 people on plane crashes, 311 died. In road accidents over six months in Russia, 7,801 people died and another 80,330 were injured.

As for railway transport, there is a high mortality rate in road accidents at crossings, but in most incidents while the train is moving, people receive moderate injuries and bruises.

About half of air crashes occur while the aircraft is landing on the ground. Interestingly, about the same proportion of accidents are caused by fatal pilot error.

What type of transport is the least dangerous?

Insurance companies help you understand which type of transport is the least safe, because they constantly study the statistics of disasters on land, in the air and at sea. It is interesting that the lowest rates for insuring cargo transported by sea and air transport, that is, the likelihood of an unfavorable outcome here is considered by insurers to be lower.

As for passengers, they are insured at a lower percentage for rail transport and when flying by plane. And trips to ground transport(personal and public) are considered the most risky of all possible types of travel.

Cold statistics and public opinion on the safety of a particular type of transport are completely opposite. According to the first, air transport is considered the safest mode of transport; according to the second, air transport is the most unsafe.

Comparing statistical data with public opinion on the safety of a particular mode of transport shows a significant difference. Most respondents cannot explain exactly why they chose this particular type of transport. Statistics in this sense of the word have the most direct justifications.

Popular opinion

As an example, it is better to consider the results of a survey conducted in 2006 by the VTsIOM center. According to the survey results, air transport was the most unsafe mode of transport, and railway transport was the safest. 84% voted for the first, 15% for the second. Water and transport received mixed reviews. Thus, 44% consider it dangerous and 39% consider it safe; 50% consider road transport dangerous and 48% safe.

Air transport statistics

According to statistical estimates, which were based on the number of victims in plane crashes, aviation was the safest mode of transport. The second and third places belong to water and railway transport, respectively.

The reason behind the fear of flying among people is the media, which fan the flames of the slightest plane crash. The number of accidents in air transport is much less than in, but due to their mass nature, the media give them general publicity. According to ICAO estimates, there is only one accident per 1 million flights. So, the probability of dying in a plane crash is 1/8,000,000. Therefore, it would take a passenger 21,000 years to die.

People also have preconceived notions about survivability after plane crashes. To debunk it, just look at the results of statistical processing of 568 plane crashes that occurred in the United States between 1983 and 2000. The death toll turned out to be 5% of the total. In more serious accidents, such as breaking into pieces, hitting the ground, etc., 50% of the passengers survived.

Statistics about road transport

The number of road accidents cannot be compared with the number of plane crashes. Statistical processing of road accidents in the Russian Federation for 2009 showed that in 203,603 road accidents, 26,084 people died and 257,034 were injured.

The safest mode of transport

Based on all of the above, we can confidently say that air transport is the safest on the planet. However, there is another safer transport - space. In the entire history of flights, only 3 spacecraft crashed.

Sources:

  • Road accident statistics in 2019

Given the large number of different vehicles, many specialists and experts, of course, want to know which ones are the safest. Statistics show that the safest mode of transport is an airplane.

Experts divide transport into 2 groups:

  • By service sector:
  1. Public options
  2. Special forces
  3. Private
  • By environment of use:
  1. Ground - this includes wheeled and rail versions
  2. Underground - metro
  3. Air
  4. Space
  5. Water and underwater
  6. Pipeline

Passengers boarding an airplane often shudder at the thought of taking off and landing. However, official statistics are clear - airliners are quite safe from the point of view of movement.

The calculations are based on the number of victims per 100 million miles. According to the results of such calculations, the mortality rate in plane crashes is 0.6 people. You can die in a plane crash in 1 case in 8 million. If compared with other options traditionally considered safer, then this figure will turn out to be completely ridiculous. Thus, in accidents with mopeds and motorcycles, the statistics is 125 deaths per 1.5 billion km. Cyclists die on the roads in considerable numbers - 35 deaths per 1.5 billion km of travel. Even in the subway more people die than on air transport– 25 cases per 1.5 billion km.

What ensures the safety of the airliner?

The reliability of aircraft, as experts note, is ensured by a certain number of factors. First of all, each aircraft undergoes a whole range of serious tests before flying. Moreover, it is inspected by both technicians and the captain of the ship, who must be personally confident in the excellent condition of the airliner he is accepting for flight.

Secondly, this is the work of security systems. Today, advanced systems are installed on airplanes, and even in quantities of several, which can duplicate each other. Accordingly, if something happens to one of them, the other will be able to duplicate it. The plane can fly and land even with one faulty engine.

Thirdly, landing tactics change regularly. Previously, pilots practiced landing the plane softly, but now they advise doing it roughly, which improves the grip of the landing gear on the runway.

Is it possible to survive a plane crash?

Many people are afraid of the inability to survive a plane crash. But this is also a myth. Yes, in many cases the plane is destroyed. But the cases when passengers remained alive are quite numerous. This is due to the fact that all aircraft are designed by people who are well versed in aerodynamics and gravity. And it’s not so easy for an airplane to fall from a height of 10,000 km.

In the USA, for example, 500 aviation incidents occurred in 20 years. The number of deaths in these is about 5% of the total number of passengers on board the liner. Even in situations like these, when planes crash and break in half, passengers have a chance of surviving.

Choosing a safe place on the plane

Against the backdrop of determining the safety of a particular vehicle, many are, of course, interested in whether it is possible to find safe seats on board the aircraft. Back in 2007, statistics were published that clearly identified the quietest seats on the plane.

To compile statistics, the researchers took data published by the National Security Council of America over 30 years. They took as a basis the dependence of the number of victims on the place where the passengers were located. It turned out that 70% of the crash survivors were located in the section behind the edge of the aircraft's wing. Also, those sitting above the wing have a chance to survive in half the cases.

The part of the plane closer to the tail is in more advantageous position due to the fact that when falling, the plane mainly falls nose-first. This means that those sitting behind have a greater chance of salvation.

Statistics of the safest planes

  • Airbus A340 - a total of 340 of these models were produced, which totaled 13.5 million flight hours, 5 accidents were recorded in which there were no casualties
  • Airbus A330 - about 600 copies produced. The planes flew 14 million flight hours, and during this time only 1 accident occurred. A total of 8 examples were lost, killing 346 people.
  • Boeing 747 - in aircraft of this brand there was 1 accident per 17.5 million flights. There are 941 vessels in operation. Over the years of use of such liners, 941 ships were lost, 51 were lost due to accidents in which 3,732 people died
  • Boeing 737 – 3 tragedies have occurred since 1997

The safest aircraft at the moment is considered to be the Boeing 777. There are 748 copies in the world. Over the years, this model has flown 20 million hours. During this time, 3 people died in two incidents. Only one ship was lost during this time.

So you shouldn’t be afraid of airplanes because of the high accident rate. Moreover, the crew also undergoes special training, has the necessary skills and is not very eager to die. In addition, an airplane is an opportunity to get to your destination quickly and completely safely.

Reading time: 7 min.

Every day, from the news feed, millions of people learn about car accidents, derailed trains, crashed planes and other accidents that result in a large number of deaths. The question arises, how to protect yourself from troubles and what type of transport is the safest? In order not to indulge in fear, we present to your attention a list of the safest transport in the world, according to this year’s statistical reports.

This type of transport is rightfully considered the most dangerous in the world. Statistics confirm this - 125 deaths per 1.5 billion kilometers. Anyone who prefers this view vehicle, seriously exposes himself to danger, and very consciously. Motorcyclists make up only 1% of the total traffic on the highway, but a fifth of all accidents involve this type of transport. Motorists gave motorcyclists the nickname “crunchies” for a reason. The reason for this was a very low percentage of passive safety, enormous acceleration, enormous speed and psychological aspects: love of extreme sports and adrenaline rushes in the body. Motorcyclists often find themselves in the blind spot of cars because they are so small.

According to statistical reports, for every 1.5 billion kilometers there are 35 deaths. This is the most environmentally friendly transport, but at the same time one of the most unsafe. But, in truth, car drivers are more to blame for road accidents than cyclists themselves. It often happens that the car has only a few scratches, but the cyclist and his vehicle are between life and death.

Statistics in this case give figures of 25 dead people by 1.5 billion kilometers. The most dangerous incidents that happen in the metro are fires, crushes, and train collisions. A large number of people in a small closed space - panic and a huge percentage of casualties. In the Russian Federation, the leader in such incidents is the Moscow Metro.

Traveling by water has always been a very risky undertaking. Of course, over many centuries of technological development, water transport has now become much safer, but nevertheless, for every 1.5 billion kilometers there are 20 deaths. Although the main cause of death remains not collisions with other ships, but passengers falling overboard.

Statistics here give the following figures: 7 deaths per 1.5 billion kilometers. The danger of flying in outer space is in no way comparable to that on earth - traveling in space is 17 times safer than riding a motorcycle. During all the time of travel in Space, only three devices did not return to Earth (the only thing that has a negative impact on statistical reports is explosions during take-offs of spacecraft).

Minibus travel involves 5 deaths per 1.5 billion kilometers. This is one of the most popular modes of transport among the population. To protect yourself in minibus It is best to take a place in the middle. The size of the car, stable grip and passive safety will all play a role here. Unfortunately, the main cause of accidents remains the low level of driver qualifications.

Here statisticians give the following figures: 4 deaths per 1.5 billion kilometers. The development of technology has also affected cars; now passive and active safety is at a completely different level. Unfortunately, motorists are the most dependent on other road users. You can be the most skillful and careful driver in the world, but this still won’t protect you from the fact that someone could crash into you and end up in the hospital, or worse.

Buses are in third place in the ranking; statistics show one fatality per 1.5 billion kilometers. If you want to travel safely, then this transport is for you. Sometimes it turns out that the bus route covers more than one thousand kilometers (for example, in Australia, a bus traveling on the Perth-Brisbane route travels 5,455 kilometers). But it is still quite safe to travel by bus.

The train is one of the safest modes of transport. Just think about it - only 0.2 deaths per 1.5 billion kilometers of road. Railway in America and Europe is the safest in the world. In Russia, things are a little worse - 0.7 deaths on the same piece of road. If you calculate the probability of death on a train, it will be 1 in 431800 degrees (approximately 0.0002%). The Investopedia resource provides data that states that the probability of dying in car accident 1000 times more than the railway.

Paradoxically for many, airplanes are the safest transport in the world. The probability that you will die while flying on an airplane is 1: 8,000,000. The problem is that although airplanes crash very rarely, they always cause a large number of victims. Therefore, the media always covers such incidents and psychologically people begin to fear airplane travel. There are 0.5 deaths per 1.5 billion kilometers. The Flight Safety Agency states that there is a 1 in 8 million chance of dying in a car accident. And self-destructive individuals need to take a ticket every day on a random flight for 21 thousand years in order to accomplish their plans.